There is a huge number of models, methods of making managerial decisions. We will consider only a few of them. There is no universal theory of decision making, so the question is not in quantity, but in quality. The proposed models for making managerial decisions are not without drawbacks. They describe the decision-making processes, but the practical application of the models can be problematic, since they depend on the motivation of the particular manager making the decision.
Methods for Modeling and Optimizing Solutions
In the process of solving complex problems, in order to enhance the ability of managers to make informed and objective decisions, various scientific methods of their development and optimization can be used, the arsenals of which are usually divided into two main classes:
• modeling methods;
• methods of expert assessments.
Modeling methods (also called operations research methods) are based on the use of mathematical models to solve the most frequently encountered management problems.
Development and optimization of the solution of a specific problem by modeling methods is a rather complicated procedure, which can be represented by the sequence of the main stages:
• statement of the problem;
• determination of the criterion for the effectiveness of the analyzed operation;
• quantitative measurement of factors affecting the investigated operation;
• construction of a mathematical model of the studied object (operation);
• quantitative solution of the model and finding the optimal solution;
• checking the adequacy of the model and the found solution to the analyzed situation;
• correction and updating of the model. The number of all kinds of specific models is almost as great as the number of problems for the solution of which they are developed.
Game theory models
Most of the business operations can be regarded as actions performed in conditions of opposition. Countermeasures include, for example, factors such as accident, fire, theft, failure, breach of contractual obligations, etc. However, the most massive case of counteraction is competition. Therefore, one of the most important conditions on which the success of an organization depends is competitiveness. It is obvious that the ability to predict the actions of competitors is a significant advantage for any commercial organization. When making a decision, you should choose an alternative that allows you to reduce the degree of resistance, which in turn will reduce the degree of risk.
Such a possibility is provided to the manager by the theory of games, the mathematical models of which induce to analyze possible alternatives to their actions, taking into account the possible retaliatory actions of competitors.
Queuing theory models
Queuing theory (or optimal service) models are used to find the optimal number of service channels at a certain level of demand for them.
Inventory management models
Any organization must maintain a certain level of stocks of its resources in order to avoid downtime or interruptions in technological processes and sales of goods or services.
Inventory management models allow you to find the optimal solution, that is, such a level of inventory that minimizes the costs of creating and maintaining it at a given level of continuity of production processes.
Linear programming models
These models are used to find the optimal solution in the situation of allocating scarce resources in the presence of competing needs.
Most of the optimization models developed for practical application are reduced to linear programming problems. However, taking into account the nature of the analyzed operations and the prevailing forms of dependence of factors, other types of models can also be used: with nonlinear forms of dependence of the result of an operation on the main factors - nonlinear programming models; if it is necessary to include the time factor in the analysis - dynamic programming models; with the probabilistic influence of factors on the result of the operation - models of mathematical statistics (correlation and regression analysis).
