Statistical indicators such as the size of nominal and real wages are used to compare the quality of life of the population from an economic point of view. Industry analysis allows us to identify problem areas in the economy. The state of the region as a whole is assessed by the value of the indicator of the level of average wages.
The average wage is a basic indicator for assessing the well-being of the population. Data on average wages are taken into account when planning programs for socio-economic development, when comparing the levels of development of individual regions of the country, as well as for comparing wages in Russia with other countries. In addition, these indicators are monitored by world organizations and can show the prospects for the development of countries or the maturing of crisis situations, both in individual regions and in the world. The procedure for calculating this estimated parameter is approved by the International Labor Organization (ILO) and is determined by legislative acts for each country.
Characteristics of the indicator
In Russia, to determine the official value of the accrued average monthly salary (ARW), the total payroll is taken into account, divided by the average headcount of the enterprise.
To generate data on the average salary in the country, the Federal State Statistics Service uses several sources of information:
- statistical reports submitted by organizations and entrepreneurs of various forms of ownership and types of economic activity;
- the results of continuous and selective statistical observations on those employers who do not have an obligation to report to the Rosstat authorities;
- data from the Federal Tax Service;
- information from the Pension Fund of Russia.
The information published by Rosstat is accurate, but does not reflect the true state of affairs in the labor market for the following reasons:
- Only large and medium-sized enterprises, employing about 32 million people out of 75 million economically active population, provide information on the dynamics of wages to statistics bodies on a monthly basis.
- Data on small and micro-enterprises, which employ about 14 million people, are taken into account only in sample and periodic surveys.
- There is no toolkit to assess the level of salaries of hired personnel employed in the fields of activity of individual entrepreneurs.
- Statistical samples lack data on the income of freelancers and self-employed citizens.
- The surveys absolutely do not take into account those who work “in the shadows”. Information about their income can only be obtained from opinion polls, the results of which are difficult to trust.
It turns out that the state statistics does not cover a quarter of the official salaries of the "open economy", and also does not take into account employment and wages in the shadow sector of the economy. Despite the relativity of this calculated value, this arithmetic mean of the indicator has special practical application and is used:
- by the state: to create reports on the income of the population in a certain region, to regulate social stratification, to determine the financial situation of citizens, to establish a minimum wage and much more;
- administrations of an enterprise, organization, region, etc. - to determine the status and in order to set the "average bar" for attracting new employees;
- by the representatives of the able-bodied population themselves as a value that can be guided by in employment; when paying compensation and benefits from the employer.
It should be clearly understood that when it is necessary to assess the level of real incomes of the population, other qualitative indicators are used (modal and median mean wages, real wages, and others).
Thus, for a comparative analysis of the economies of the regions, a cold mathematical figure is used - the average monthly nominal accrued wages. In order to analyze the situation on the labor market, Rosstat calculates several values of the average monthly wage:
- for the country as a whole;
- by region;
- by branches of the economy;
- by specialties of workers;
- according to the educational level of workers.
The average wage indicator is in dynamics, calculated and published by the Federal State Statistics Service on a monthly basis. For the assessment and preparation of general economic forecasts for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, the estimates made at the end of the calendar year are indicative.
Factors of interregional differentiation in wages
There are 85 federal subjects in Russia, and the average salaries in them vary significantly. According to information published on the official website of Rosstat, at the beginning of 2019 in 23 regions (including the federal cities of Moscow, St. Petersburg and Sevastopol) the level of nominal accrued wages exceeds 40 thousand rubles, in 26 territories, regions and autonomies - is below 30 thousand rubles. At the same time, the "incoming" value of the average nominal wage as of 01.01.2019 in the whole of the Russian Federation is RUB 43,445. The indicator for June 2019 is RUB 49,840.
In Russia, which has a vast territory with different climatic conditions, features of the relief, mentality and culture, wages cannot be the same for all regions of the country. The significant difference in numbers is due to the different economic potential of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
Regions, territories, republics are differentiated by population, distribution of industrial complexes, financial status and preferences of citizens. The prices for goods / services are also not the same, which explains the different purchasing power of the population.
Factors of interregional differentiation in wages also include: the share of the working-age population in the region; legislative framework in the field of taxation and employment; the status of the settlement in which the citizen works; the field of business where the person is employed; the professional qualification group to which the employee belongs, and the demand for his profession; general paying capacity of the population.
Regional average salaries
Analyzing the data for the previous calendar year and using the current monthly average values of the average wages and salaries, it is possible to draw up a general picture of the distribution of this indicator by the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The total average Russian salary in May 2019 was 47,926 rubles. Out of 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, only 23 regions (including Moscow and St. Petersburg) have an average salary of "over 40 thousand." And in almost 30 regions, salaries are below 30,000 rubles. Many of them are forced to receive subsidies from the center in order to somehow equalize the minimum incomes of citizens.
- The lowest rates - due to serious economic problems - are in the North Caucasus: from 31 thousand rubles in Ingushetia to 28 thousand rubles in the Chechen Republic. Among the central regions of the country, the Ivanovo region is among the outsiders (27159 rubles). This is one and a half times lower than the average wages in the country
- The undoubted leader in terms of the average nominal accrued wages is the Russian North: the regions of the Urals, Siberia and the Far East. Due to the difficult living conditions in these resource-supplying territories, there is a system of allowances and coefficients. Transportation difficulties are due to high prices for food and goods. The Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug monthly pays for the work of employees in amounts 5 times higher than the cost of a fixed set of goods and services - 120671 rubles. In the Magadan Region (106,219 rubles) and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (110,284 rubles), not only the incomes of the working population are high, but also the living wage for pensioners.The Nenets Okrug with a salary of ₽ 99,487 is the smallest of all the constituent entities of the Russian Federation - it has been the leader in terms of gross regional product per capita for a long time. The next region after Moscow, occupying the second place in the Russian economy, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra - 85,427 rubles a month (60% of Russian oil is produced in the district). Salaries are almost 1.5 times higher than the national average - in the Kamchatka Territory, Sakhalin, and Yakutia.
- Immediately beyond the North, according to the average nominal accrued salary, is the center of the country's economic and financial activity - the Moscow agglomeration - 89,045 rubles. The only one of the Central regions that does not specialize in mining is the Moscow Region, which has an indicator of 55,197 rubles. Experts explain the high salary in the Moscow region by the fact that local salaries have to compete with those offered by employers in the capital: even spending several hours a day on a trip, a person has the physical opportunity to work in Moscow.
- The second capital of the country - St. Petersburg due to such sectors of the economy as manufacturing, trade, tourism, has an average salary of 60,752 rubles.
- For the Southern Federal District, there is no scatter across regions - a corridor of values from 30,000 to 36,000 rubles. Sevastopol and Crimea occupy an average position in their region with the average wages of ₽ 33326 and ₽ 32626, respectively.
- The average nominal salary in such regions as Pskov, Kostroma, Oryol, Tambov does not exceed the value of 30 thousand rubles.
According to research by RIA "Rating", which analyzed salaries in 81 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in small and medium-sized settlements, average salaries are 12% less than in regional capitals and major cities. Only in 5 regions, where the "economic centers" are shifted to small settlements located near the fields, the population does not travel to large cities in order to receive a higher salary. We are talking about regions with a raw-material economy: the Nenets Autonomous District, the Komi Republic, the Magadan Region, the Jewish Autonomous District, the Amur Region. As for the high rates in cities with a population of over one million, far from everyone has salaries at the level of the average. Most likely, these are either salaries for demanded specialties, or earnings for people who have been working in one place for 5+ years, are valued by the management and receive bonuses.
Consequently, Rosstat data are more or less real only for large regional centers. It is quite possible to receive 40-45 thousand in Tyumen, and in Novosibirsk, and in Rostov, and in Yekaterinburg, and in Kazan. For small towns (with a population of less than 100-150 thousand), even 40 thousand is already a difficult sum to achieve. In the provinces and small towns, average wages can be at the level of the subsistence minimum or "minimum wage".
Forecast of the growth rate of average wages in the regions
In view of the fact that there is an uneven distribution of labor resources and the difference in the amount of wages between Russian regions, there is a tendency to increase internal migration movements. Often, people of working age leave their "homes" and move to where they "pay more."
The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia has made a forecast for the growth rate of average salaries of Russians in the regions for 2019-2021.
According to the department's estimates, in the absence of negative factors, the average salaries in the country will give a stable increase of about 4-5% per year:
- The lowest wage growth rates are expected in the Urals, where the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug remains the leader. The increase in the region will amount to only 3-4% annually.
- In the North Caucasian Federal District, which will still fall short of the national average, the annual growth will be approximately 4%.
- A stable 5% annual increase in average wages will result from: in the Far East - Chukotka, which is the leader in this issue in Russia as a whole; in Siberia - Krasnoyarsk Territory; in the Central Federal District - Moscow.
- Average salaries will increase by 6% per year in the Northwestern Federal District. The highest average salaries in the region, consistently exceeding 100 thousand rubles, are still in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. In Murmansk and St. Petersburg, over these three years, the average salary will increase by 8-10 thousand rubles.
- In the Southern Federal District, growth is projected at 6% per year only in the Krasnodar Territory and Sevastopol. At the same time, it will not be possible to achieve the value of the average Russian indicator.
- Within its Volga Federal District, the highest average wages will be in Tatarstan, where growth will be 8% per year.
Vice-Rector of the Academy of Labor and Social Relations Alexander Safonov, commenting on the above forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development in Rossiyskaya Gazeta, assesses it as an optimistic scenario. He draws attention to the fact that such rates of growth of regional average wages will become possible only on condition that the level of general growth of the Russian economy is not lower than 1.8 - 2.1% per year.